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BEST BETS
Risk: 4-5%
Byu -7
BANKROLL: 4%
BYU has the matchup advantage in the trenches. Coming off of a 308 yards in week 1 brings QB Bear Bachmeier and RB LJ Martin. BYU has a big home field vs Arizona. Arizona hasn't won at BYU since 1975. I'm taking the better team at home, BYU -7.
-137
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no best bet currently posted
BANKROLL: 4%
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OFFICIAL PLAYS
Risk: 2-3% of Bankroll
COLLEGE FOOTBALL WEEK 2
BUFFALO +10.5 VS FIU
BUF +10.5 -110
3% BANKROLL
RESULT: PENDING
The market is overreacting to Week1. I'm taking Buffalo +10.5 because i believe the market has put too much weight on the opening week results and not enough on underlying matchups. Bufalo showed enough offensively in its opener to make me comfortable taking double digits, while FIU's Week 1 result was not as dominant as the final numbers suggest. At +10.5 I believe we are getting more points than this matchup warrants. Number is good up to +10.
TENNIS ATP- US OPEN
TIAFOE VS SHELTON OVER 3.5 SETS
OVER 3.5 SETS (-217)
2% BANKROLL
RESULT: WIN (+.92 UNITS)
I'm fading the price not picking a winner. Shelton is deservedly the favorite, but -217 on the Over doesn't seem high enough for two players I have power ranked very close together. Shelton's last match went into the 5th set. I am expecting the same. Over 3.5 sets
NO OFFICIAL PLAY POSTED
BANKROLL
(-110)
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SHARP LEANS
Risk: 1% or less
TEAM / EVENT
LINE
ODDS
UNITS
SHARP TAKE
NFL- CHICAGO BEARS
-3
-114
UP TO 1%
Week 1 NFL, give me the higher power ranked team. Chicago -3 is the play.
NFL-JETS VS TITANS
UNDER 38.5
-110
UP TO 1%
One of the lowest totals on the week 1 board. I like the under, but the number is getting tight enough that I'm keeping it as a lean rather than forcing it into the official card.
NFL- PHI EAGLES
-5.5
-112
UP TO 1%
I think Philadelphia has a legitimate path to controlling this matchup and covering, but at -5.5 I'm not quite confident enough to make it an Official play.
WEEKLY BREAKDOWN
WEEK 2 - LETS KEEP IT SIMPLE
We're not here to bet every game on the board. We're here to find the spots that make the most sense and be disciplined eough to pass on everything else.
This wee, I've identified a few spots I really like, but I'm staying disciplined and only betting numbers where I believe there's a real edge.
The goal every week is the same: find the edge, bet with confidence, manage the bankroll, and don't chase.
I'll continue to update the card as the week develops and will always be transparent about what I'm betting - and what I'm staying away from.
BET LESS. BET BETTER.
